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  2. Chinese economy up against twin bubble
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  5. Tokyo’s Stock Bubble: 25 Years on From Nikkei Peak

Either they will have to reduce the debt burden, which will result in significantly slower growth, or China will further boost its already very high level of debt. The second approach is bound to result in a severe economic slump, although not necessarily a crash.

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Given the high levels of debt, the bubble in real estate valuations and the opaque linkages between the regulated and shadow-banking sectors, adjustment should probably not be postponed any further. This is a new development.

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In the s, for example, it was the other way round. China — the government, private companies without a financial sector, private households, reduced their debt. From then until , debt and economic growth moved in parallel.

Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard economist and former chief economist of the IMF, in January , described China as the epicentre of the next financial crisis. For too long, the sustainability of debt played no role in the calculations of executives. This has led to a conflict of objectives: the obvious main objectives, namely the prevention of a sharp reduction in employment and the achievement of regional growth targets, are at odds with other policy objectives, in particular, financial stability. The contradictory nature of Chinese economic policy is reflected in another peculiarity of the financial system, the financing structures at the local level.

The local authorities are prohibited by law from going into debt.

Chinese economy up against twin bubble

These are companies owned by local authorities that offer land use rights as collateral for loans. It is a way of disguising prohibited borrowing, and the municipalities are dependent on this method to finance ambitious urban infrastructure measures. Real estate has been the main engine of the Chinese economy.

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